Abstract:

Nowadays, the integration of solar power into the electrical grids is vital to increase energy efficiency and profitability. Effective usage of the instable solar production of photovoltaic (PV) systems necessitates trustworthy forecasting information. Actually, this addition can gives an ameliorated service quality if the solar radiation variation can be forecasted accurately. In this paper, we propose a new forecasting approach that integrates Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Genetic algorithms (GA) to make benefit of both of them in order to forecast Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) component. The proposed approach is compared with the standard ARMA model. The experimental results show that, the proposed approach outperforms the classical ARMA models in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE) coefficient of determination (R)² and the normalized mean squared error (NMSE).