Bouzgou H, Atmani H, Gueymard C.
Information-theoretic deep learning component separation from forecasted global horizontal irradiance. Solar Energy [Internet]. 2026;312 : 114621.
Publisher's VersionAbstractDirect Normal Irradiance (DNI) is a key variable for solar resource assessment and the design of concentrating solar power plants, yet it is less frequently measured than Global Hor-izontal Irradiance (GHI) due to high costs and operational constraints. To address this gap, a novel two-stage deep learning framework is proposed that first forecasts GHI and then reconstructs DNI through an advanced separation model, eliminating the reliance on dedicated DNI measurements. The framework leverages bidirectional recurrent neural networks (BiLSTM/BiGRU) to capture temporal dependencies, combined with a wrapper-based Mutual Information (WMI) feature selection method to optimally integrate diverse radiometric and atmospheric quantities. Validated on 15-minute data representing arid, dust-prone, tropical, and temperate climates, the WMI-DL consistently and significantly outperformed four conventional empirical separation methods (Erbs, DISC, DIRINT, Engerer4) across RMSD, MAD, MBD, and R2 metrics. At Gobabeb and Desert Rock arid sites, RMSD is reduced to 10.4 W/m2 and 20.7 W/m2, respectively, with R2 of 96.6% and 90.5%, while at Tamanrasset, under arid and frequently dusty conditions, RMSD reaches 18.5 W/m2 with an R2 of 93.7%, markedly outperforming empirical models. Even in cloudy temperate climates, the model achieves RMSD values of 30.5 W/m2 in Bermuda and 36.3 W/m2 in Palaiseau, with R2 ≈ 91%, demonstrating robustness across diverse atmospheric conditions. While direct DNI forecasting with BiGRU achieves slightly higher accuracy, the WMI-DL framework provides a cost-effective, adaptable, and robust solution for high-fidelity DNI estimation, outperforming both conventional separation methods and ECMWF reanalysis benchmarks in regions lacking direct measurements.
Mezaache H, Bouzgou H, Raymond C, zemouri N.
A Novel Approach for Accurate Wind Speed Time Series Forecasting Using ICEEMDAN Decomposition and Sample Entropy through Integration of Deep Learning Models. International Journal of Engineering [Internet]. 2026;39 (2) :309-320.
Publisher's VersionAbstractThis study proposes a novel hybrid model for wind speed forecasting (WSF) based on a three-stage framework comprising decomposition, feature selection, and forecasting. The proposed approach employs Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN) to decompose wind speed time series into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). A distinctive contribution of this study is the use of sample entropy as a feature selection mechanism to identify the most relevant Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). The selected IMFs are then integrated through a classification-based fusion technique, significantly enhancing forecasting accuracy and distinguishing this approach from conventional methods. Two distinct forecasting approaches are evaluated using multiple performance metrics, including RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R². The first approach applies the fusion technique directly to the original wind speed time series, while the second incorporates ICEEMDAN to decompose the time series. Experimental validation using two real-world datasets from Algeria demonstrates the superiority of the proposed hybrid model over individual forecasting models, yielding significant improvements in prediction accuracy, robustness, and stability. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the three-stage framework, offering a reliable and efficient solution for short-term wind speed forecasting, with potential applications in renewable energy management and grid optimization.