Rahrah K, Taibi S, Bouzgou H.
Optimizing Annual Energy Output of a Residential Bifacial PV System Using Box-Behnken Design: A Case Study in Tamanrasset, Algeria. In: Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems ((LNNS,volume 1238)) . Springer ; 2024. pp. 428-436.
Publisher's VersionAbstractIn this paper, Response Surface Methodology (RSM) with optimization is proposed to determine the optimal annual energy output of a small-scale residential bifacial PV system, considering constraints input parameters such as albedo type, module height, tilt angle, and spacing. This could be done by quantifying the relationship between the variable input parameters and the corresponding output parameter where RSM is integrated with PVsyst simulation tool for the analysis. The proposed Box-Behnken design (BBD) optimization required 29 runs for data acquisition and modelling the response surface and Design-Expert software was used to design the experiments and randomize the runs. Regression model was developed and its adequacy was verified to predict the output value at nearly all conditions. The optimization study shows that the system produces the maximum yearly energy when the ground albedo is 0.71, module height is 1.68 m, tilt angle is 19.42°, and module spacing is 7.42 m. These characteristics were found using the meteorological conditions in Tamanrasset, Algeria.
Louchene HE, Bouzgou H, Gueymard C.
Determination of the Optimal Volume and Distribution of Learning Data for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Applications. In: Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems ((LNNS,volume 1238)) . Springer ; 2024. pp. 584–593.
Publisher's VersionAbstractGiven the significant importance of renewable or alternative energies today, extensive research is being conducted to enhance the efficiency and reduce the costs of utilizing these energy sources. Among these studies, solar energy forecasting plays a crucial role in achieving these objectives. Accurate forecasting can optimize energy yield, improve grid management, and facilitate the integration of solar power into existing energy systems, ultimately contributing to more reliable and cost-effective renewable energy solutions. This contribution investigates how data volume influences forecasting accuracy. In particular, the impacts on forecasting accuracy of varying forecast horizons and optimal data splitting for training and testing phases are examined. Additionally, the effects on forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) of clustering the data into 3, 5, or 7 groups using the K-means algorithm are investigated. Five different predictive models are employed— multi layer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), convolutional neural network (CNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM)— alongside the newly proposed kResCLSTM hybrid method. Using GHI observations at an arid site in southern Algeria, it is found that a 10-year time series is optimal, along with a 60%-40% split in it for the training vs. testing periods.
Megaache SE, Bouzgou H, Gama A, Zerari N.
Spatiotemporal Prediction of Solar Irradiance in Algeria: A CNN-Driven Approach for Solar Energy Mapping. In: Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems ((LNNS,volume 1238)) . Springer ; 2024. pp. 544–553.
Publisher's VersionAbstractThe first objective of this study is to estimate the potential of solar irradiance in Algeria using an artificial intelligence approach, namely, convolutional neural networks (CNNs). The second objective is to visualize the different solar components DNI, DHI, and GHI as spatial maps. Data from 267 locations for 2005–2022, obtained from the NREL database, subdivided into training and testing data are used to build the different forecasting models. Testing data are not used when training CNNs to provide an indication of the performance at unknown locations. CNN models with 9 input variables average temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, precipitation, longitude, latitude, altitude, and month were used to estimate the monthly values of GHI, DNI, and DHI. Statistical error analysis is conducted using mean absolute error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Bias Error (MBE) and coefficient of determination R2. This study shows that CNNs can be a better solution to estimate solar irradiance data. Seasonal solar mapping was developed in a GIS environment, representing locations and values of solar irradiance. These maps offer valuable insights into solar energy resources, aiding in the implementation of solar energy systems.
zemouri N, Mezaache H, Bouzgou H.
Comparative Analysis of Forecasting Methods for Renewable Energy Across Forecast Horizons. Algerian Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development [Internet]. 2024;06 (02) :231-240.
Publisher's VersionAbstractSustainable energy sources like solar and wind speed provide an economically efficient source of energy. Prediction of the output of renewable energy plays a crucial role in shaping decisions concerning electrical system operation and management. Forecasting precision in renewable energy output is essential to ensuring the reliability and stability of the grid, as well as for mitigating risks and minimizing costs within the energy market and power systems. Various statistical techniques were developed to predict solar radiation and wind speed for this purpose and there are two types approaches commonly used: Deep learning and artificial Neural network (ANN). This work propose the used of three statistical methods based in Elman Recurrent Neural Network (ERNN), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) to forecast the output data in different forecasting horizons. Four evaluation deferent metric are used: Forecast skill (FS), Root mean square error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and coefficient of determination ( R2). These metrics confirm the robustness and accuracy of the LSTM model, validated by its RMSE, MAE, FS, and R² values for both sites. These performances demonstrate the effectiveness of LSTM in capturing temporal patterns, with significant implications for weather forecasting and renewable energy applications.